Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering

Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering

Evaluation of Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region (Iran) Using Seismic Strain and Seismicity Parameters

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology

Authors
Rohollah Madahizadeh 1
Mehrdad Mostafazadeh 2
Shobyr Ashkpour-Motlagh 3
1 Ph.D Candidate, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of physics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran.
10.48303/jsee.2016.240745
Abstract
In this paper seismic strain andGutenberg-Richter b-value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region(Southwest Iran). Seismicity data of the Zagros are extracted from International Seismological Center and Iranian Seismological Center bulletins in timeinterval 1963 to 2015. The b-values are estimated using Kijko-Sellevoll method. The results represent that b-value varies from 0.62 to0.72in the study region.Low b-values (0.62 and 0.72) are accompanied with higher strain rates (1.22×10-8 and 7.46×10-9) in southern parts of the Zagros indicating more frequent large earthquakes. On the other hand, Low b-values (0.64 and 0.72) and lower strain rates (2.39×10-9 and 8.54×10-10) in northern parts of the Zagros indicate less frequent large earthquakes. Recurrence interval of large earthquakes(M>6) is estimated using the b-values and seismic strain rates.Recurrence interval of large earthquakes in southern parts of the Zagros (7 and 8 years) are shorter than northern parts of the Zagros (19 and 45 years).
Keywords
Seismic strain
Moment Tensor
Zagros
b-value
Recurrence interval
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Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering
Volume 18, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
Autumn 2016
Pages 199-218

  • Receive Date 04 October 2015
  • Accept Date 26 December 2020
  • Publish Date 01 October 2016