Stabilizing Intermediate-Term Medium-Range Earthquake Predictions

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology


1 ICTP and Russian Academy of Sciences

2 Russian Academy of Sciences ICTP

3 ICTP and University of Trieste

4 University of Trieste ICTP


A new scheme for the application of the intermediateterm medium-range earthquake prediction algorithm M8 is proposed. The scheme accounts for the natural distribution of seismic activity, eliminates the subjectivity in the positioning of the areas of investigation and provides additional stability of the predictions with respect to the original variant. According to the retroactive testing in Italy and adjacent regions, this improvement is achieved without any significant change of the alarm volume in comparison with the results published so far.