Studying Chaotic Modeling for Earthquake Prediction (An Overview: NW of Iran)

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology


Payam Noor University (PNU), Tehran


Recently, many geoscientists have focused on chaos and its relevant subjects for understanding nonlinearity of nature as the main criteria in explaining the dynamic behavior of earthquakes, mineralization and other similar processes. Mathematically, the multivariate iterative functions have basic fractal expression in the analytical, practical and computational domains. In this research, a dynamic model of geophysical precursors is presented, using logistic map, to describe simply the complexities at the edge of chaos. In the proposed model, the seismic, magnetic, gravimetric and electromagnetic data are included. Here, the research region is divided into stable and active areas, according to the historical earthquakes. In this regard, in the Eastern Azerbaijan province around Anatolian fault system, the μ parameter values are used as the average net reproductive rate values. The results show evidential themes containing independent variables in eighteen integrated model cells. Also fourteen forecast cells can be determined after applying the net values into the regions of lower priorities, with or without potential for future events, in comparison with model cells.