Seismic Risk Analysis of Metropolitan Tehran: A Link Between Hazard Analysis, Vulnerability Assessment and Loss Estimation Studies

Document Type : Risk Management


Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran


Metropolitan Tehran, as the capital, the economic and political center, and the most populated city in Iran, has a special position in earthquake preparation, mitigation and response. Tehran is vulnerable to earthquakes and is expecting a destructive earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7. In the present paper, the items of hazard analysis, vulnerability assessment, and loss estimation in respect of Tehran are introduced, and the relevant research concerning the category of physical and structural damage is investigated. The results from vulnerability assessment indicate the vulnerability of a major part of the buildings in Tehran. The results from the loss estimation indicate a high percentage of damage in the event of an earthquake in Tehran. Furthermore, based on the loss estimation results, the likely amount of debris generated and possibilities for positioning of the temporary housing are provided. The results emphasize the necessity of short-term, average-term and long-term policies for damage reduction and seismic reinforcement.