Seismic Hazard Assessment of Syria

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology


National Earthquake Centre


In this paper, the well-established probabilistic seismic hazard - Poisson occurrence model - technique is applied to estimate the seismic severity of Syrian region. Syrian seismic catalog, which extends from 19 AD to 2012, as well as seismotectonic features of the region have been utilized. The seismic hazard assessment carried out using eight seismic active zones based on tectonic settings and spatial distribution of the seismic activity. We assessed the modified Gutenberg-Richter Model parameters and the maximum credible earthquake magnitude for each seismic zone. Suitable numeric attenuation models have been used for the considered seismic zones. An increment of 0.1 x 0.1 degree is used. The seismic hazard maps are developed for return periods (50, 100, 175, 475 and 975 years) and for the seven structural periods. Integrating PGA to PSA hazard maps have done based on site-effect factors of PSA/PGA. Seismic hazard curves are obtained for all major cities. Relatively high levels of PGA as well as PSA are found in regions: Lebanese part of DSFS, Al-Ghab region of Syria, along the border of Turkey and Bitilis zone. Remarkable seismicity has noticed in the eastern part of Syria.