Identification of Vrancea Earthquake Prone Zones Based on Seismic Energy Discontinuity Using Empirical Analysis and Analytical Tools

Document Type : Structural Earthquake Engineering


Rajiv Gandhi Memorial Group of Institutions and University of Oradea, Romania


The need for evaluation of a sound earthquake disaster mitigation and critical assessment of the detailed cumulative seismic energy dissipated in the Vrancea Region in Romania is required to identify the active seismogenic activity for the last 12 years associated within the seismotectonic zone of Vrancea Region of Romania. The seismogenic behaviour observed by the recent strain energy release from 2004 to 2016 in Vrancea by processing the energy bulletin of the seismic energy discontinuity gives new results. Vrancea is the most critical seismo-tectonic region in Eastern Europe prone to earthquakes and suffer seismic energy variations that can be linearly approximated due to the constant rate of earthquake occurrences. This allows to forecast the magnitude using iso-contour plotting and analysis of the energy-magnitude relationship. The study shows that there is an immediate need to diagnose for a unifying slip-dependent law determined from strain energy bearing capacity of the region. In this study, the average moment release rate and strain release pattern within time frame 2004-2016 for the region have been examined by analysing the updated Romplus Catalog from the Vrancea region of Romania. The study shows that if strain energy released by a tectonic block is large it might affect the stress building process in the rocks of adjacent tectonic blocks. A zone of future earthquake activity in the Vrancea based on the study is also identified and an integrated functional block diagrams as part of the activity in any geo-tectonic region incorporating pre-earthquake parameter assessment is developed.


  1. Elbanna, A. and Ma, X. (2014) Towards a unified framework for modeling fault zone evolution: From particles comminution to secondary faults branching. Society of Engineering Science 51st Annual Technical Meeting, 1-3 October 2014, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.
  2. Gobel, T.H. (2013) Microseismicity, Fault Structure, and the Seismic Cycle: Insights from Laboratory Stick-Slip Experiments . Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Southern California.
  3. Guilhem, A. and Nadeau, R.M. (2012) Episodic tremors and deep slow-slip events in Central California. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 357, 1-10.
  4. Rogers, G. and Dragert, H. (2003) Episodic tremor and slip on the Cascadia subduction zone: The chatter of silent slip. Science, 300(5627), 1942-1943.
  5. Mohanty, W.K., Mohapatra, A.K., Verma, A.K., Tiampo, K.F. and Kislay, K. (2014) Earthquake forecasting and its verification in northeast India. Geomatics. Natural Hazards and Risk, 1-22.
  6. Mishra, O.P. and Zhao D. (2003) Crack density, saturation rate and porosity at the 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake hypocenter: a fluid-driven earthquake? Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 212, 393-405.
  7. Velasco, A.A., Hernandez, S., Parsons, T., and Pankow, K. (2008) Global ubiquity of dynamic earthquake triggering. Nature Geosci., 1, 375-379.
  8. Dutta, P.K., Naskar, M.K., and Mishra, O.P. (2012a) Test of strain behaviour model with radon anomaly in seismogenic area: a Bayesian melding approach. International Journal of Geosciences, 3(1).
  9. Kasahara, K. (1981) Earthquake Mechanics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 248 pp.
  10. Radulian, M., Bonjer, K.P., Popescu, E., Popa, M., Ionescu, C., and Grecu, B. (2007) The October 27, 2004 Vrancea (Romania) earthquake. ORFEUS Newsletter , 1(7).
  11. Toader, V.E., Moldovan, I.A., Constantin, I., Marmureanu, A., Dutta, P.K., and Moldovan, T. (2016) Monitoring of radon and air ionization in a seismic area. IBWAP 2016 the 16th International Balkan Workshop on Applied Physics.
  12. Satriano, C., Elia, L., Martino, C., Lancieri, M., Zollo, A., and Iannaccone, G. (2011) PRESTo, the earthquake early warning system for southern Italy: concepts, capabilities and future perspectives. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 31(2), 137-153.
  13. Beroza, G.C. and Mikumo, T. (1996) Short slip duration in dynamic rupture in the presence of heterogeneous fault properties. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (1978-2012), 101(B10), 22449-22460.
  14. IRIS Earthquake Browser Output accessed for finding spatial map for Latitude and Longitude., [viewed online May 12, 2015.
  15. Wells, D.L. and Coppersmith, K.J. (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America , 84(4), 974-1002.
  16. Gudmundsson, A. (2014) Elastic energy release in great earthquakes and eruptions. Frontiers in Earth Science, 2, doi:10.3389/feart.2014.00010.
  17. Toader, V.E., Popescu, I.M., Moldovan, I.A., and Constantin, I. (2015) Vrancea seismicity analysis based on cumulative seismic energy. University Politehnica of Bucharest Scientific Bulletin-Series A-Applied Mathematics and Physics, 77(2), 297-308.
  18. Mogi, K. (1984) Temporal variation of crustal deformation during the days preceding a thrust type
  19. great earthquake - The 1944 Tonankai earthquake of magnitude 8.1, Japan. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 122(6), 765-780.
  20. Bath, Markus (1977) Teleseismic magnitude relations. Annals of Geophysics, 30(3-4), 300-327.
  21. Antelope Software
  22. Dutta, P.K., Mishra, O.P., and Naskar, M.K. (2013a) A method for post-hazard assessment through topography analysis using regional segmentation for multi-temporal satellite imagery: a case study of 2011 Tohuku earthquake region. International Journal of Image, Graphics and Signal Processing, 5(10).
  23. Dutta, P.K., Mishra, O.P., and Naskar, M.K. (2013b) Evaluation of seismogenesis behavior in Himalayan belt using data mining tools for forecasting. Central European Journal of Geosciences, 5(2), 236-253.
  24. Dutta, P.K., Mishra, O.P., and Naskar, M.K. (2015) An integrated design for earthquake energy release and forecast model development. 7th International Conference on Seismology & Earthquake Engineering (SEE7), International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES).
  25. Lay, T., Kanamori, H., Ammon, C.J., Koper, K.D., Hutko, A.R., Ye, L., Yue, H., and Rushing, T.M.
  26. (2012) Depth-varying rupture properties of subduction zone megathrust faults. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 117(B4).
  27. Dutta, P.K., Mishra, O.P., and Naskar, M.K. (2012) A Poisson process hidden Markov cellular automata model in earthquake genesis and conflict analysis: A physical approach. Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, 14(2), 81.
  28. Dutta, P.K. (2014) Earthquake Generating Mechanism and Earthquake Warning System Design. PhD. Thesis, Jadavpur University, 353p.