Possible Precursors Linked to the 2021 Fin Doublet Earthquakes

Document Type : Research Article


Research Center for Earthquake Precursors, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran


Precursors as informer pioneers of near future occurrence of earthquakes, are very diverse in their natures. We examined three short term possible precursors contain foreshocks, b-value variations, and amplitude abnormalities in the Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio signals for the November 14, 2021 Fin double-earthquakes (M > 6). By searching-zoom method in earthquakes one degree on each side of the hypocenter location in the Iranian Seismological Center (IrSC), the International Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) and the Building and Hosing Research Center (BHRC) catalogs, those data for the reviewing foreshocks were provided, then they analyzed by use of ZMAP for the b-value changes based on the Guttenberg-Richter empirical relation methodology. Whereas, in the BHRC accelerometer portal reported 8 events before the main shock times, none of them are not in the other catalogs. The temporal b-value variations from the normal, shown non sharp fits to the rises or falls of the seismicity as an expected indicator. Some b-value in accordance with the seismic up and down rate tracks, have high spatial uncertainties. We observed some amplitude anomalies in the VLF received signals from mean standard deviation in VLF signal measurements (2σ criterion in the statistical method) in about 4 days before and up to 5 days after the main shocks. Albeit, in follow the null hypothesis, for verifying (and not refused) these relations, are needed to be qualified data. As you will see, all three catalogs used in the coverage, quality, verification and appropriate data for logical and reliable review and processing are not less error than the expected standards. The main goal has been to investigate the possible precursors before the 2021 Fin doublet earthquakes by using available local ground base data and obtainable facilities in this field and considering their improvement. The possibility of some foreshocks associated with double earthquakes cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the reliability of the studied precursors completely dependent to the proper data, that sufficient-precise instruments for their observations and recording are vital requirement. It is possible to use that kind of reliable and high-quality data in the analysis of pre-earthquake signals or even reasonable forecasting, which, if possible, will bring a valuable achievement in the future. We came to the conclusion that with such researches, the necessity of data quality and improving the level of their acquisition/standard in the country's research centers, must be carefully defined for more scientific and practical effects.


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