Analysis of the prediction of earthquake locations in Anatolia and adjacent regions of 1974 in connection with the 2023 Türkiye -Syria Great Earthquakes

Articles in Press

Document Type : Technical Note

Authors

1 Russian Academy of Sciences and ICTP

2 Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics

Abstract

On February 6, 2023, two devastating earthquakes occurred in the southeast of Turkey with an interval of 9 hours, which also affected the territory of Syria. The position of the epicenters of these earthquakes is discussed in connection with the forecast of M6.5+ earthquake locations for the territory of Anatolia and adjacent regions, obtained in 1974 by I.M. Gelfand, V.I. Keilis-Borok and their co-authors on the base of morphostructural zoning data employing the Cora-3 pattern recognition algorithm. It has been established that the epicenters of the earthquakes of February 6, 2023 were located in the node, which in 1974 was identified as capable of M6.5+. Since 1974, 36 M6.5+ events have been observed in the study region. The spatial distribution of these events is analyzed in relation to the seismogenic nodes recognized in 1974. It was found that the epicenters of 32 such events are located in the nodes recognized as dangerous for M6.5+ in 1974.

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Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 18 December 2023

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