Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering

Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering

Analysis of the Prediction of Earthquake Locations in Anatolia and Adjacent Regions of 1974 in Connection with the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Great Earthquakes

Document Type : Technical Note

Authors
Alexander I. Gorshkov 1
Olga V. Novikova 2
1 DSci, Ph.D., Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
2 Ph.D., Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
10.48303/jsee.2023.2010510.1071
Abstract
On February 6, 2023, two devastating earthquakes occurred in the southeast of Türkiye with an interval of 9 hours, which also affected the territory of Syria. The position of the epicenters of these earthquakes is discussed in connection
with the forecast of M6.5+ earthquake locations for the territory of Anatolia and adjacent regions, obtained in 1974 by Gelfand et al., based on morphostructural zoning data employing the Cora-3 pattern recognition algorithm. It has been
established that the epicenters of the earthquakes of February 6, 2023 were located in the node, which in 1974 was identified as capable of M6.5+. Since 1974, 36 M6.5+ events have been observed in the study region. The spatial distribution of these events is analyzed in relation to the seismogenic nodes recognized in 1974. It was found that the epicenters of 32 such events are located in the nodes recognized as dangerous for M6.5+ in 1974.
Keywords
Türkiye earthquake of 2023
Pattern recognition
Cora-3 algorithm
Seismogenic nodes

Subjects

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Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering
Volume 26, Issue 1
2024
Pages 71-77

  • Receive Date 31 August 2023
  • Revise Date 27 November 2023
  • Accept Date 18 December 2023
  • Publish Date 01 January 2024