Seismic Hazard: Lessons and Perspectives Gained in the Light of Recent Events

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology


Institut de Protection & de Surete Nucleaire


The introductory section of this contribution is devoted toestablishing the cu"ent state of our knowledge concerning the seismicactivity of our planet, placed in the setting of plate tectonics, with particularattention paid to the so-called "intraplate" zones. Means will then beexamined for improving seismic protection by attempting to predict thesize and location of future earthquakes on the strength of informationabout past seismicity and neotectonics; this demonstration is illustratedby some noteworthy recent events. In the second section we will be takingstock of work accomplished throughout the world that derived notablyfrom recent advances in seismic ground motion calculation for engineeringpurposes. This discussion deals notably with theoretical simulationtechniques. indicating various problems encountered in this area, chiefamong which is accounting for the influence on ground motion ofsuperficial soil and soft rock layers. The third andfinal section contains aglobal evaluation of the progress already made and of foture perspectivesfor seismic hazard assessment both worldwide and in intraplate areasspecifically.