Seismic Situation's Probability Prediction in Greater Caucasus during the Period 2005-2025

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology


Institute of Geophysics


This paper presents probabilistic prediction of seismic situation along the structural-tectonic zones of the axial part and the southern slope of Great Caucasus. It is an important problem, because large earthquakes (M>6) occur frequently in this area. As usual, the calculated probabilities of occurrence of large earthquakes give more condensed information. As it was expected, conditional probabilities of a future earthquake is small immediately after previous shock and it increases with the time passed after the last earthquake. To solve this problem, the spatial distribution and frequency of occurrence of large earthquakes is studied. In particular, it was found that epicenters of earthquakes with M>6 are distant from each other in this zone on the average distance of 100km. On the basis of maximum seismic activity in these areas, the average periods of recurrence of large earthquakes have been identified. By using a time-dependent model of seismicity, some segments and subsegments of the structural-tectonic zones and conditional probabilities of occurrence of large earthquakes for the period 2005-2025 were calculated. Studies have shown that areas with a high probability of occurrence of large earthquakes deserve priority in controlling the seismic situation.