A Novel Method for Detection of Seismic Dual-Zones with Application to Earthquake Forecasting

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology



2 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad


In this paper, we introduce a new approach to prepare the forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes higher than a threshold level. This method can recognize the world's dual seismicity zones, where an earthquake in one zone acts as a precursor to other events in some other zone(s). To do so, we first, divide the entire global plane into well-defined sub-regions, and then create a matrix whose different cells correspond to different spatial-temporal seismic attitudes. In this matrix, each cell identifies the total number of events occurred in that sub-region within that specified period of time. The method, then proposes a procedure to measure the possibility or likelihood of an event in those regions by looking through the current situation of the reference region. On the other hand, the method can forecast future status of the reference region by searching the database of earthquakes, which have occurred already, and this would further result in prediction of other double seismicity regions. Validity of the new forecasting approach is confirmed by the last year's events data recorded in NEIC catalogue.