A Platform for Earthquake Risk Assessment in Iran Case Studies: Tehran Scenarios and Ahar-Varzeghan Earthquake

Document Type : Risk Management


Earthquake Risk Management Research Center, IIEES


The generation of riskmaps in urban area is necessary for risk and disaster management studies and strategic planning. This research is completed in line with the tasks of the GEM-EMME (Global Earthquake Model - Earthquake Model of the Middle East) project and aims at the development of a systematic procedure in estimating the seismic risk to residential buildings and the human loss. The procedure involves four main stages. At first, the geospatial information for buildings and population are compiled and processed as to generate a country-wide geodatabase. In the next phase, ground shaking maps are produced for scenario or actual earthquakes for case studies. The third phase corresponds to the vulnerability modeling of the building stock. In the final phase, the estimate of the building damage and the associated casualty loss are calculated for two case studies. For the first case study, the residential building loss and casualty numbers are calculated for three important earthquake scenarios produced by Mosha Fault (MF), North Tehran Fault (NTF) and Rey Fault (RF) for Tehran. The current findings show that NTF can potentially account for the high number of 349428 heavily damaged or destroyed housing units and 100680 severely injured (or dead) people outnumbering MF and RF cases. For Rey fault, the estimated figures correspond to 257329 heavily damaged (or destroyed) housing units and 54468 severely injured (or dead). For the second case study, 7760 heavily damaged (or destroyed) housing units and 1045 severely injured (or dead) people are estimated for Ahar-Varzeghan earthquake (August 2012) that is in close agreement with the actual reported numbers.