Grid-Based Probabilistic Earthquake Forecast for Iran

Document Type : Seismology and Engineering Seismology




In this paper, a model of earthquake forecast is presented to assess the long-term probabilities of future earthquakes with moderate magnitudes for a region including Iran (latitude 25-40° and longitude 44-62°). The model estimates a coupled rate of magnitude, space and time for future seismicity using a spatial-temporal Poisson process. The smoothed spatial distribution of seismicity is measured by an adaptive kernel using the locations of past M ³ 4.5 earthquakes listed in the ISC catalog in the period of 1980 to 2014. The retrospective area skill score test has been carried out to check the significant of the results, using a spatially uniform reference model. At 95% confidence level, the model was not rejected by the test. Moreover, the results show a meaningful correlation between anomalies of the forecasted map and the epicenters of target events occurred from 2015 to 2016. Based on the results, it is concluded that the areas characterized by high forecasted rates of seismicity could be considered as the highly hazardous ones, most likely to seismic activation in the Iranian plateau.


  1. Jafari, M.A. (2012) Seismicity anomalies of the 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 56, 212-217.
  2. Talebi, M., Zare, M., Madahi-Zadeh, R., and Bali-Lashak, A. (2015) Spatial-temporal analysis of seismicity before the 2012 Varzeghan, Iran, Mw 6.5 earthquake. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 24(3).
  3. Allameh-Zadeh, M., Ansari, A., Bahraminasab, A., Kaviani, K., Ardakani, A.M., Mehrnahad, H., Mehrshahi, D., Niry, M., Tabar, M., and Tabatabai, S. (2004) Mid-Infrared Radiation as a Short-Term Earthquake Precursor . arXiv preprint physics/0403003.
  4. Mokhtari, M. (2010) Earthquake prediction activities and Damavand earthquake precursor test site in Iran. Natural Hazards, 52(2), 351-368.
  5. Maybodian, M., Zare, M., Hamzehloo, H., Peresan, A., Ansari, A., and Panza, G.F. (2014) Analysis of precursory seismicity patterns in Zagros (Iran) by Cn algorithm. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 23(1), 91-99.
  6. Radan, M., Hamzehloo, H., Peresan, A., Zare, M., and Zafarani, H. (2013) Assessing performances of pattern informatics method: A retrospective analysis for Iran and Italy. Natural Hazards, 68(2), 855-881.
  7. Kagan, Y. and Jackson, D. (1994) Long-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99(13), 685-613, 685.
  8. Kagan, Y. and Jackson, D. (2010) Short and long-term earthquake forecasts for California and Nevada. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6-7), 685-692.
  9. Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Liukis, M., Yu, J., Euchner, F., Maechling, P.J., and Jordan, T.H. (2010) The collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability perspective on computational earthquake science. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 22(12), 1836-1847.
  10. Zare, M. (1999) "Contribution à l'etude des mouvements forts en Iran: du catalogue aux lois d'attenuation. Geophysique [physics.geo-ph]. Universite Joseph-Fourier - Grenoble I, Français.
  11. Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y.Y., and Jackson, D.D. (2007) High-resolution time-independent gridbased forecast for M ³ 5 earthquakes in California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 78-86.
  12. Wiemer, S. and Wyss, M. (2000) Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: examples from Alaska, the western United States, and Japan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America , 90(4), 859-869.
  13. Reasenberg, P. (1985) Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-1982. Journal of Geophysical Research, 90(B7), 5479-5495.
  14. Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C.F. (1944) Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America , 34(4), 185-188.
  15. Mogi, K. (1967) Earthquakes and fractures. Tectonophysics, 5(1), 35-55.
  16. Werner, M.J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D.D., and Kagan, Y.Y. (2011) High-resolution longterm and short-term earthquake forecasts for California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America , 101(4), 1630-1648.
  17. Bird, P. and Kagan, Y.Y. (2004) Plate-tectonic analysis of shallow seismicity: apparent boundary width, beta, corner magnitude, coupled lithosphere thickness, and coupling in seven tectonic settings. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America , 94(6), 2380-2399.
  18. Werner, M.J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., and Wiemer, S. (2010) Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for
  19. Italy. arXiv preprint arXiv:1003.4374.
  20. Zechar, J.D. and Jordan, T.H. (2008) Testing Alarm-Based Earthquake Predictions. Geophysical Journal International, 172(2), 715-724.
  21. Kagan, Y.Y. and Jackson, D.D. (2006) Comment on 'Testing earthquake prediction methods: "The West Pacific short-term forecast of
  22. earthquakesw with magnitude MwHRV³5.8"' by V.G. Kossobokov. Tectonophysics, 413(1), 33-38.
  23. Molchan, G.M. (1991) Structure of optimal strategies in earthquake prediction. Tectonophysics, 193(4), 267-276.