A New Model for Estimating the Value of Human Loss for Cost-Benefit Analysis in Disaster Risk Management in Iran

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 M.Sc. Graduate, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Earthquake Risk Management Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Earthquake Risk Management Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

This research provides a new methodology for evaluating the socioeconomic consequences of earthquakes by reconsidering the debated topic of the value of human loss in the course of disaster loss estimation in Iran. To do this, at first, the relevant methodologies have been investigated, and then the consistency of the results of those methods with the existing norms in Iran has been assessed. Then, a model was proposed to estimate the Value of Human Loss (VHL) to be used in cost-benefit analyses in disaster risk management planning. Finally, the proposed model has been applied to estimate the economic loss arising from the individual's death due to a seismic event in a vulnerable neighborhood in Tehran. The results of this study depicted that the outputs of the proposed model could provide a more tangible understanding of the earthquake losses to decision-makers. Also, it can facilitate the economic analysis required for various stages of disaster management, in particular, choosing more economically-justified risk reduction options. In addition, it can be used for evaluating the importance and urgency of earthquake risk mitigation in different urban and rural places. The proposed methodology can be applied in other countries with certain modifications based on differences in socio-economic characteristics.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

1- Kucharcikova, A. (2011) Human Capital–definitions and approaches. Hum. Resour. Manag. Ergon., 5, 60-70.
2- Baker, R. and Ruting, B. (2014) Environmental Policy Analysis: a Guide to Non-Market Valuation. 58th AARES Annual Conference, Port Macquarie, New South Wales Retrieved April 17, 2016, from https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11135-018-00832-y.pdf.
3- Melichar, J. and Scasny, M. (2004) 'Introduction to non-market valuation methods and critical review of their application in the Czech Republic'. In: Development of the Czech Society in the European Union. Part V: Non-Market Valuation Methods in Environmental Areas, 21-23.
4- OECD (2011) Valuing Mortality Risk Reductionsin Regulatory Analysis of Environmental, Health and Transport Policies: Policy Implications. Paris. Retrieved September 24, 2016, from www.oecd.org/env/policies/vsl.
5- Musango, L., Nundoochan, A., Kirigia, J. M. (2020) The Discounted Money Value of Human Life Losses Associated With COVID-19 in Mauritius. Journal of Frontiers in Public Health, 8.  
6- Max, W., Rice, D.P., Sung, H.Y. and Michel, M. (2000) Valuing human life: estimating the present value of lifetime earnings, UC San Francisco Economic Studies and Related Methods. Retrieved March 22, 2016, from https://escholarship.org/content/qt82d0550k/qt82d0550k.pdf.
7- Viscusi, W.K and Aldy, J.E.: The value of a statistical life: A critical review of market estimates throughout the world. Harvard Law School John M. Olin Center for Law, Economics and Business. Discussion Paper Series. Paper 39 (2002)
8- Razani, R. and Nielsen, N.N. (1984) Valuation of human life in seismic risk analysis. Proceedings of the Eighth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. San Francisco. 7, 947-954.
9- Usher, D. (1973) An imputation to the measure of economic growth for changes in life expectancy. The measurement of economic and social performance. NBER Chapters, The Measurement of Economic and Social Performance, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 193-232.
10- Long, M.C. (2022) Altruism and the Statistical Value of Human Life for Policy and Regulation. Soc Indic Res, 160, 341-355, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02784-7.
11- Ganderton P.T. (2005) ‘Benefit-Cost Analysis’ of Disaster Mitigation: Application as a Policy and Decision-Making Tool. In: Haque C.E. (eds) Mitigation of Natural Hazards and Disasters: International Perspectives. Springer, Dordrecht.
12- Sund, B. (2010) Economic Evaluation, Value of Life, Stated Preference Methodology and Determinants of Risks. Örebro University.
13- Aldy, J.E. and Viscusi, W.K. (2007) Age differences in the value of statistical life: Revealed preference evidence. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 1(2), 241-260.
14- Accent (2010) Review of Stated Preference and Willingness to Pay Methods. A report for the Competition Commission, Retrieved October 14, 2016, from https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.competition-commission.org.uk/our_role/analysis/summary_and_report_combined.pdf. 
15- Bateman, I.J., Carson, R.T., Day, B., Hanemann, M., Hanley, N., Hett, T., Jones-Lee, M., Loomes, G., Mourato, S. and Ozdemiroglu, E., Pearce, D.W., Sugden, R. and Swanson, J. (2002) Economic Valuation with Stated Preference Techniques: A Manual. Edward Elgar, Ltd. Cheltenham, ISBN: 1840649194, 480 pp.
16- Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Centre for Earthquake and Environmental Studies of Tehran (CEST) (2000) The Study on Seismic Microzoning of the Greater Tehran Area in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Final Report, JR 00-186, Tehran, Iran.
17- Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization (TDMMO) (2004) The comprehensive master plan study on urban seismic disaster prevention and management for the Greater Tehran Area in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Final Report, JR, 04-039, Tehran, Iran.
18- Bellavance, F., Dionne, G. and Lebeau, M. (2009) The value of a statistical life: A meta-analysis with a mixed effects regression model. Journal of Health Economics, 28(2), 444-464.
19- Viscusi, W.K.: Corporate Risk Analysis: A Reckless Act? Stanford Law Review, 52(3) 547-597 (2000).
20- Miller, T.R. (2000) Variations between countries in values of statistical life. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 34(2), 169-188.
21- Firuzi, E., Amini Hosseini, K., Ansari, A., Izadkhah, Y.O., Rashidabadi, M. and Hosseini, M. (2020) An empirical model for fatality estimation of earthquakes in Iran. Natural Hazards, 103, 231-250.
22- Bastami, M. and Soghrat, M.R. (2017) An empirical method to estimate fatalities caused by earthquakes: the case of the Ahar-Varzaghan earthquakes (Iran). Natural Hazards, 86(1), 125-149.
23- Hajibabaee, M., Amini Hosseini, K., and Ghayamghamian, M.R. (2014) Earthquake risk assessment in urban fabrics based on physical, socioeconomic and response capacity parameters (a case study, Tehran City). Natural Hazards, 74(3), 2229-2250.
24- Mansouri, B., Ghafory-Ashtiany, M., Amini Hosseini, K., Nourjou, R. and Mousavi, M. (2010) Building Seismic Loss Model for Tehran. Earthquake Spectra, 26(1), 153-168.
25- Coburn, A.W., Spence, R.J.S., and Pomonis, A. (1992) Factors determining human casualty levels in earthquakes: mortality prediction in building collapse. Proc. of the First International Forum on Earthquake-Related Casualties, Madrid, Spain.
Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering
Volume 22, Issue 4
November 2020
Pages 83-94

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics