A New Model for Estimating the Value of Human Loss for Cost-Benefit Analysis in Disaster Risk Management in Iran

Document Type : Research Article


1 M.Sc. Graduate, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Earthquake Risk Management Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Earthquake Risk Management Research Center, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), Tehran, Iran


This research provides a new methodology for evaluating the socioeconomic consequences of earthquakes by reconsidering the debated topic of the value of human loss in the course of disaster loss estimation in Iran. To do this, at first, the relevant methodologies have been investigated, and then the consistency of the results of those methods with the existing norms in Iran has been assessed. Then, a model was proposed to estimate the Value of Human Loss (VHL) to be used in cost-benefit analyses in disaster risk management planning. Finally, the proposed model has been applied to estimate the economic loss arising from the individual's death due to a seismic event in a vulnerable neighborhood in Tehran. The results of this study depicted that the outputs of the proposed model could provide a more tangible understanding of the earthquake losses to decision-makers. Also, it can facilitate the economic analysis required for various stages of disaster management, in particular, choosing more economically-justified risk reduction options. In addition, it can be used for evaluating the importance and urgency of earthquake risk mitigation in different urban and rural places. The proposed methodology can be applied in other countries with certain modifications based on differences in socio-economic characteristics.


Main Subjects

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